Norway Atlantic Mackerel: Japan Waits Ahead of the 2026 Season
Release time:
2026-06-25
Norway Atlantic Mackerel: Japan Waits Ahead of the 2026 Season
The Japanese market remains cautious ahead of the new Norwegian Atlantic mackerel season. Weak consumption, slow raw-material turnover, and limited restocking interest from processors continue to suppress purchasing activity.
Japan is the largest export market for Norwegian Atlantic mackerel. Most imports arrive as frozen whole fish and are processed domestically into salted fillets for retail sale. According to Tokyo importers, end-user demand remains weak, with limited wholesale trading. Prices for 400–600g fish are around JPY 850–870/kg (USD 5.30–5.70/kg).
Retail performance has not improved. Sales of Atlantic mackerel products at several supermarket chains are down 60–70% year-on-year, including Norwegian-origin products. In contrast, Pacific mackerel fillets from Japan or China remain relatively stable, supported by price-sensitive consumers. Norwegian mackerel is increasingly viewed as a premium-priced product.
Processors show little interest in rebuilding inventories before August. Most prefer to reduce existing stocks rather than take additional risks. Some financially stronger companies are willing to hold inventories into next year, expecting tighter future supply.
The market for deboned mackerel fillets reprocessed in China and Vietnam is also weak. Nominal prices remain at JPY 1,700–1,800/kg, but actual transactions have fallen to JPY 1,500–1,600/kg, with spot offers as low as JPY 1,400/kg. Based on last year’s raw-material costs, domestic sales prices need to reach JPY 1,800–2,000/kg to avoid losses.
Norwegian suppliers previously offered 2025-season 400–600g frozen whole mackerel at CFR Asia prices of USD 5.50–5.60/kg, but follow-up Japanese purchases have been limited. With continued yen weakness, importers would need selling prices near JPY 1,000/kg to break even, a level the market struggles to support.
Japanese buyers estimate that Norway, Iceland, Scotland, and the Faroe Islands still hold 20,000–30,000 tonnes of unsold Atlantic mackerel, including 10,000–20,000 tonnes in Norway. However, some major importers believe Norway’s freely available inventory may be below 10,000 tonnes.
Price prospects for the new season remain uncertain. Lower Norwegian quotas and auction dynamics could push raw-material prices higher after fishing begins in August. Some market participants believe smaller fish (200–400g) may face greater price pressure due to weaker demand outside Japan.
Norwegian authorities have confirmed a 2026 Atlantic mackerel quota of 81,375 tonnes, down 51% year-on-year. Slightly more than 45,000 tonnes are allocated to the purse-seine fleet, averaging about 600 tonnes per vessel. Industry participants note that favorable weather could allow vessels to complete quotas in a single trip, while processors could complete production within a week.
Lower quotas, rising energy and financing costs, and a stronger Norwegian krone are increasing production costs. Industry sources estimate that exchange-rate effects alone may require prices for 400–600g frozen whole mackerel to rise to USD 6.20–6.30/kg to maintain margins comparable to last season.
According to the Norwegian Seafood Council, May exports of frozen whole mackerel fell 7% year-on-year to 3,938 tonnes. Exports of sub-600g fish declined 19% to 3,209 tonnes, while the average export price rose 69% to NOK 49.25/kg.
Japanese import demand remains subdued. April imports of Norwegian frozen mackerel reached 1,581 tonnes, up 16% year-on-year, but cumulative imports since September 2025 totaled 26,593 tonnes, down 45%. The average April import price fell 18% month-on-month to JPY 755/kg but remained 33% above last year.
Domestic supply conditions have not eased significantly. Frozen mackerel inventories stood at 77,147 tonnes at the end of March, up 8% year-on-year. Although Pacific mackerel landings continue, an increasing share consists of small fish unsuitable for fillet production.
Data from the Japan Fisheries Information Service Center show that May Pacific mackerel landings fell 25% to 13,826 tonnes, while average landing prices surged 116% to JPY 199/kg, a record for the month. January–May landings rose 3% to 106,954 tonnes, with average prices up 68% to JPY 200/kg. In western Japan, fish under 200g account for 80–90% of catches, while fish above 300g represent less than 10%, limiting fillet-processing yields.
